Estimate unpaid losses with the development (chain ladder), case outstanding development, expected claims, Bornhuetter-Ferguson, Cape Cod, frequency-severity, Berquist-Sherman, and Benktander techniques, and judge when each fits.

Free CAS Exam 5 (Basic Ratemaking and Reserving) lesson in Estimating Claim Liabilities. 29 min read, ~4,316 words.

Chain ladder ultimate equals latest cumulative losses times the cumulative development factor (CDF); fully responsive, unstable for green years. Expected claims ultimate equals premium times an a priori loss ratio; ignores actual emergence, best for immature or thin years. Bornhuetter-Ferguson ultimate equals reported losses plus expected losses times the unreported...

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