Calculate system reliability for series, parallel, and bridge configurations of independent components, and analyze Markov chain transition matrices.

Free CAS MAS-I (Modern Actuarial Statistics I) lesson in Probability Models. 11 min read, ~1,661 words.

Series:. Weakest link dominates; reliability falls fast as components are added. Parallel:. Redundancy multiplies failure probabilities, not survival probabilities. Bridge: 5-component diamond with a crossover. Use conditioning on the bridge element for a clean two-line calculation. Markov transition matrix: rows sum to 1, entry is the one-step probability of moving...

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