Compare models via predictive performance measures (e.g., double lift chart).
Free CAS MAS-II (Modern Actuarial Statistics II) lesson in Statistical Learning. 13 min read, ~1,972 words.
Always evaluate on hold-out data (test set or cross-validation). In-sample fit overstates accuracy. Single lift chart: sort hold-out by predicted, bucket into deciles, plot actual versus predicted per bucket. Monotone increase = model orders risk correctly. Double lift chart: sort by ratio of challenger to incumbent prediction, bucket, compare actual...
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- Example 1
- Example 2
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Learning objectives
- C11
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