Compare models via predictive performance measures (e.g., double lift chart).

Free CAS MAS-II (Modern Actuarial Statistics II) lesson in Statistical Learning. 14 min read, ~2,159 words.

Always evaluate on hold-out data (test set or cross-validation); in-sample fit overstates accuracy. Single lift chart: sort hold-out by predicted, bucket into deciles, plot actual versus predicted; a monotone increase proves the model has signal and orders risk correctly. Double lift chart: sort by the ratio of challenger to incumbent...

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