Understand the assumptions underlying different tree ensemble methods and the improvements they can make to decision trees.

Free CAS MAS-II (Modern Actuarial Statistics II) lesson in Statistical Learning. 13 min read, ~1,973 words.

Single tree: low bias, high variance, unstable to small data perturbations. Ensembles attack one of those two failure modes. Bagging: reduces variance by averaging bootstrap-trained trees. Assumes trees are roughly unbiased and that bootstrap injects enough independence. Random forest: bagging plus a random subset of predictors at each split (...

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