Interpret time series output to make forecasts.

Free CAS MAS-II (Modern Actuarial Statistics II) lesson in Time Series with Constant Variance. 16 min read, ~2,355 words.

Model ID: white noise has flat ACF and PACF; AR(p) cuts off in PACF at lag p; MA(q) cuts off in ACF at lag q; ARMA tails off in both. Coefficient table: each row gives estimate, standard error, t-ratio, p-value. A term is significant when; drop it if and diagnostics...