Capital Market Expectations: Framework and Macro Considerations

Free CFA Level III: Portfolio Management lesson in Asset Allocation. 36 min read, ~5,373 words.

CMEs are the most consequential and most error-prone input to asset allocation. Nine challenges recur: data limitations, survivorship bias, non-stationarity, data mining, anchoring, and four others. GDP decomposition (labor force growth + productivity growth) anchors long-run equity return estimates. The Grinold-Kroner model builds equity returns from yield + earnings growth...

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