Calculate maximum likelihood estimates of transition intensities and probabilities for multiple state and multiple decrement models, assuming piecewise constant transition intensities.
Free SOA Exam ALTAM (Advanced Long-Term Actuarial Mathematics) lesson in Survival Models for Contingent Cash Flows. 12 min read, ~1,798 words.
Core MLE:. Transitions out of into over total waiting time in. Independent estimation: the likelihood factors by origin-destination pair, so each is maximized on its own. Piecewise constant means is flat inside each age band; you re-estimate for each band. Right exposure: the denominator is time in origin state only...
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