Exam ASTAM · Severity Models · Free Lesson

Create new distributions by multiplication by a constant, raising to a power, exponentiation, mixing and splicing.

Free SOA Exam ASTAM (Advanced Short-Term Actuarial Mathematics) lesson in Severity Models. 27 min read, ~4,068 words.

Five transformations let you build the entire severity zoo from a handful of base distributions. Inflation factors, Weibull severity fits, and lognormal claim sizes all fall out of these five moves.

Multiplication by a constant. Stretching the x-axis by c c stretches the CDF horizontally and squashes the pdf vertically by the same factor so total mass stays 1. If Y=cX Y = cX with c>0 c > 0 , then FY(y)=FX(y/c) F_Y(y) = F_X(y/c) and fY(y)=fX(y/c)/c f_Y(y) = f_X(y/c)/c . When θ \theta is a scale parameter, the family is preserved and θ→cθ \theta \to c\theta . All shape parameters lock. Moments scale by ck c^{k} , and CV and skewness do not move.

KEY: Inflation at rate r r is multiplication by 1+r 1+r . Replace θ \theta with (1+r)θ (1+r)\theta and re-evaluate the mean formula. Shape parameters are frozen.

Raising to a power. Define Y=Xτ Y = X^{\tau} . For τ>0 \tau > 0 this is the "transformed" version; for τ<0 \tau < 0 it is the "inverse" version.

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For a power transform, write Y=Xτ Y = X^{\tau} , invert to X=Y1/τ X = Y^{1/\tau} , and apply change-of-variables once. For a discrete mixture, compute each Ei[Xk] E_i[X^{k}] from the standard tables, then dot-product with wi w_i . For a two-piece splice with weights w1,w2 w_1, w_2 , the scaling on piece i i is wi/[Fi(ci)−Fi(ci−1)] w_i / [F_i(c_i) - F_i(c_{i-1})] . Apply once, integrate to check. For "solve for the mixing weight" problems, plug into w=(μ∗−μ2)/(μ1−μ2) w = (\mu^{\ast} - \mu_{2})/(\mu_{1} - \mu_{2}) ; avoid setting up the full pdf integral.

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