An actuary fits an exponential, then a gamma, then a Weibull, then a Pareto, each time getting a better fit. These are not four unrelated models. The exponential is a special case of the gamma, which sits inside the generalized gamma, which also contains the Weibull. Understanding the hierarchy means you never memorize distributions in isolation.
HIGH-FREQUENCY: The exponential-gamma-Weibull hierarchy and distribution construction via transformations, mixing, and splicing are core testable topics.
If has CDF , then has:
Exponential to Weibull: Start with . Then has survival function:
When , Weibull reduces to exponential.
KEY: The exponential is the building block of the distribution hierarchy. Power-transform it to get Weibull, sum copies to get gamma, mix with a gamma rate to get Pareto.
Exponential to Gamma: Sum of i.i.d. Exp() variables gives Gamma(). At , gamma is exponential.
Common mistakes
- Computing mixture variance as weighted average of component variances. The trap is 1,375,000 instead of 1,847,500. You must include the between-component term.
- Confusing spliced weights with probabilities. is not . The probability equals times the integral of the component density over that interval.
- Forgetting Weibull at is exponential. This simplification saves time. The hazard becomes constant .
Bottom line
- Exponential Gamma Generalized Gamma and Exponential Weibull Generalized Gamma, with lognormal a limiting case of generalized gamma.
- Weibull = power transform of exponential: where ; Weibull at and gamma at reduce to exponential.
- Power transform CDF rule: , never .
- Lognormal = exponentiated normal. Pareto = continuous mixture of exponentials with a gamma-distributed rate.
Exam shortcut
When you see a distribution relationship question, ask: is it a special case, a transformation, a mixture, or a splice? The exam rarely asks you to derive from scratch, it asks you to recognize and simplify. Knowing Weibull() = exponential means you skip the gamma function. "Expo is the mother." Power-transform to Weibull. Sum to gamma. Mix to Pareto. Exponentiate normal to lognormal. "Mixture variance = within + between."
The full lesson (about 2,022 words, 13 min read) adds 2 worked examples, all 5 common mistakes, a self-check, free in the app.
Learning objectives
- 2c
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