A recursion ratio is . Is this Poisson? Negative binomial? Logarithmic? Recognizing which distribution you have (and how it relates to its zero-truncated siblings) separates a 30-second solution from a 5-minute grind.
Poisson(): , . Recursion ratio , decreasing.
Binomial(): , . Support , finite.
Negative binomial(): , . Infinite support. Tail decays geometrically.
Geometric(): NB with . . Constant recursion ratio .
KEY: Geometric is negative binomial with , giving . The recursion ratio is constant at for all , if the ratio does not change with , you have geometric.
Common mistakes
- Confusing zero-truncated with logarithmic. Both have . But logarithmic is NOT the ZT version of any (a,b,0) distribution. Its signature is distinct. Trap: computing , which is not a valid NB parameter.
- Starting the (a,b,1) recursion from . The recursion starts from . Computing makes everything vanish. Trap: all probabilities zero.
- Forgetting ZT rescaling. . When is large (Poisson with small ), the rescaling is substantial. Trap: reporting un-rescaled probabilities.
Bottom line
- (a,b,0) has exactly four members: Poisson, binomial, negative binomial, geometric
- (a,b,1) adds all zero-truncated/zero-modified versions, plus logarithmic ()
- Logarithmic has , , no mass at zero, and no (a,b,0) counterpart
- ZT rescaling: . Same recursion factors, different starting value
Exam shortcut
Build a decision tree. First: mass at zero? No → (a,b,1). Second: ? Yes → logarithmic. No → ZT or ZM version. Third: sign of identifies the underlying family. Three steps, under 15 seconds. "Logarithmic = a plus b equals zero." Drill as reflex. "ZT = divide by 1 minus p-naught." One formula covers all four ZT versions. "The sign tells the story."
The full lesson (about 1,530 words, 10 min read) adds 2 worked examples, all 5 common mistakes, a self-check, free in the app.
Learning objectives
- 2f
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