Problem Preview: A select-and-ultimate table with 2-year select period gives , , . You need . For years 3 and 4 you need ultimate rates at attained ages 32 and 33. The rate comes from the row, not the row. Using the wrong row gives 0.95614 instead of 0.96050.
HIGH-FREQUENCY: Correct reading and application of IAN notation appears in virtually every FAM mortality problem.
, probability that a life aged survives at least more years.
, probability that a life aged dies within years. When , drop the subscript: and .
, survive years, then die within the following years. When : .
Common mistakes
- Reading ultimate rates from the wrong row. After the select period, the ultimate rate is found where . In a 2-year select table, that is the row. Trap: using (select rate for a newly selected 33-year-old) instead of the ultimate rate.
- Dropping the brackets too early. Brackets drop only after the select period ends. If the select period is 2 years, and use brackets; does not. Trap: applying ultimate rates one year too early.
- Confusing with . = dying within years. = surviving years then dying in the next year. Very different quantities.
Bottom line
- = survive, = die. Left subscript = duration, right subscript = current age, vertical bar = deferral.
- Circle accent () = continuous/complete. No circle = discrete/curtate.
- is a rate (can exceed 1). is a probability (bounded by 1). Under constant force, .
- Select notation: = age at selection, = duration since selection. Brackets drop after the select period ends.
Exam shortcut
Before computing anything in a select-and-ultimate problem, draw a timeline. Mark the selection age, current duration, select period boundary, and target age. Label each year with the correct rate, bracketed for select years, unbracketed for ultimate. This 30-second investment prevents the most common error: pulling the wrong rate. "p survives, q kills." "Brackets = recently screened." "Bar = wait then die." "Ultimate reads by attained age."
The full lesson (about 1,702 words, 11 min read) adds 2 worked examples, all 5 common mistakes, a self-check, free in the app.
Learning objectives
- 8c
Browse all free Exam FAM lessons or jump into free Exam FAM practice questions.