Exam P · Probability Fundamentals · Free Lesson

Combinations and Permutations

Free SOA Exam P (Probability) lesson in Probability Fundamentals. 17 min read, ~2,618 words.

Pick 6 from 49 in a lottery. Count arrangements instead of subsets and you get a number 720 times too large, because P(6,6)=6!=720 P(6,6) = 6! = 720 orderings map to the same ticket.

If a procedure has k k sequential stages with n1,n2,…,nk n_1, n_2, \ldots, n_k choices respectively, the total number of outcomes is:

n1×n2×⋯×nkn_1 \times n_2 \times \cdots \times n_k

This applies whenever choices at each stage are independent of earlier choices.

A permutation is an ordered arrangement. Choose r r objects from n n distinct objects:

P(n,r)=n!(n−r)!P(n,r) = \frac{n!}{(n-r)!}

Special case: arrange all n n objects, that gives n! n! .

When n n objects include groups of identical items (n1 n_1 of type 1, n2 n_2 of type 2,..., nk n_k of type k k ) the distinct arrangements form the multinomial coefficient:

n!n1!⋅n2!⋯nk!\frac{n!}{n_1! \cdot n_2! \cdots n_k!}

MISSISSIPPI has 11 letters: 1 M, 4 I's, 4 S's, 2 P's. Distinct arrangements: 11!/(1!⋅4!⋅4!⋅2!)=34,650 11!/(1! \cdot 4! \cdot 4! \cdot 2!) = 34{,}650 .

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Common mistakes

Bottom line

Exam shortcut

When stuck, translate the problem into a physical process: "I am pulling 4 balls, do I care about the order I pull them?" This forces the permutation vs. combination decision before you write a formula. "Combinations are permutations with the ordering divided out." (nr)=P(n,r)/r! \binom{n}{r} = P(n,r)/r! . If you accidentally compute a permutation, dividing by r! r! recovers the combination.

The full lesson (about 2,618 words, 17 min read) adds 3 worked examples, all 7 common mistakes, a self-check, free in the app.

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