Exam P · Probability Fundamentals · Free Lesson

Combinations and Permutations

Free SOA Exam P (Probability) lesson in Probability Fundamentals. 17 min read, ~2,618 words.

Pick 6 from 49 in a lottery. Count arrangements instead of subsets and you get a number 720 times too large, because orderings map to the same ticket.

If a procedure has sequential stages with choices respectively, the total number of outcomes is:

This applies whenever choices at each stage are independent of earlier choices.

A permutation is an ordered arrangement. Choose objects from distinct objects:

Special case: arrange all objects, that gives .

When objects include groups of identical items ( of type 1, of type 2,..., of type ) the distinct arrangements form the multinomial coefficient:

MISSISSIPPI has 11 letters: 1 M, 4 I's, 4 S's, 2 P's. Distinct arrangements: .

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Common mistakes

Bottom line

Exam shortcut

When stuck, translate the problem into a physical process: "I am pulling 4 balls, do I care about the order I pull them?" This forces the permutation vs. combination decision before you write a formula. "Combinations are permutations with the ordering divided out." . If you accidentally compute a permutation, dividing by recovers the combination.

The full lesson (about 2,618 words, 17 min read) adds 3 worked examples, all 7 common mistakes, a self-check, free in the app.

Learning objectives

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