Bayes' Theorem and Law of Total Probability
Free SOA Exam P (Probability) lesson in General Probability. 23 min read, ~3,490 words.
Law of total probability: over a full partition, and this sum is always the Bayes denominator. Bayes' theorem:, reversing the conditioning direction. Terminology: the prior and posterior describe the hypothesis; the likelihood describes the data. Posterior odds = likelihood ratio prior odds, a faster route than the standard form. PPV...
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What this lesson covers
- Content
- Example 1
- Example 2
- Example 3
- Example 4
- Example 5
- Example 6
- Common Mistakes
- Check Your Understanding
- Exam Shortcuts
Learning objectives
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