Exam P · Probability Fundamentals · Free Lesson

Permutations, Ordered Counting, and the Multiplication Principle

Free SOA Exam P (Probability) lesson in Probability Fundamentals. 20 min read, ~3,031 words.

A bank PIN has 4 digits, so there are of them. Drop the repeats and demand 4 distinct digits, and you have only . Same alphabet, different rule, half the answers gone. Picking the right ordered-counting rule is the whole game.

Build an outcome in stages. If the first stage can happen ways and the second ways regardless of the first, the combined process happens ways. The principle chains across any number of independent stages.

A meal with 3 appetizers, 5 entrees, and 4 desserts gives meals. Every permutation rule below is just the multiplication principle applied to a shrinking or fixed menu.

Order all distinct items in a line. The first slot has choices, the second has (one item is used up), and so on down to 1.

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Exam shortcut

Scan the stem for the repetition policy before you pick a formula. "Repeats allowed, digits can repeat, with replacement" means ; "distinct, no repeats, without replacement" means (use all items and it collapses to ). For a round table, subtract one from : "circle means , because one seat is fixed." When letters repeat in a word, divide by the factorial of each repeat count.

The full lesson (about 3,031 words, 20 min read) adds 3 worked examples, all 6 common mistakes, a self-check, free in the app.

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