Exam P · Probability Fundamentals · Free Lesson

Permutations, Ordered Counting, and the Multiplication Principle

Free SOA Exam P (Probability) lesson in Probability Fundamentals. 23 min read, ~3,446 words.

A bank PIN has 4 digits, so there are 104=10,000 10^4 = 10{,}000 of them. Drop the repeats and demand 4 distinct digits, and you have only 10⋅9⋅8⋅7=5,040 10 \cdot 9 \cdot 8 \cdot 7 = 5{,}040 . Same alphabet, different rule, half the answers gone. Picking the right ordered-counting rule is the whole game.

Build an outcome in stages. If the first stage can happen a a ways and the second b b ways regardless of the first, the combined process happens a⋅b a \cdot b ways. The principle chains across any number of independent stages.

N=n1⋅n2⋅n3⋯nkN = n_1 \cdot n_2 \cdot n_3 \cdots n_k

A meal with 3 appetizers, 5 entrees, and 4 desserts gives 3⋅5⋅4=60 3 \cdot 5 \cdot 4 = 60 meals. Every permutation rule below is just the multiplication principle applied to a shrinking or fixed menu.

Order all n n distinct items in a line. The first slot has n n choices, the second has n−1 n-1 (one item is used up), and so on down to 1.

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Scan the stem for the repetition policy before you pick a formula. "Repeats allowed, digits can repeat, with replacement" means nr n^r ; "distinct, no repeats, without replacement" means nPr {}_nP_r (use all items and it collapses to n! n! ). For a round table, subtract one from n n : "circle means (n−1)! (n-1)! , because one seat is fixed." When letters repeat in a word, divide n! n! by the factorial of each repeat count.

The full lesson (about 3,446 words, 23 min read) adds 4 worked examples, all 6 common mistakes, a self-check, free in the app.

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