Prediction and Confidence Intervals

Free SOA Exam SRM (Statistics for Risk Modeling) lesson in Linear Models. 21 min read, ~3,158 words.

A confidence interval bands the mean response; a prediction interval bands a single new. The PI is always wider. The PI standard error has an extra "+1" inside the radical that accounts for irreducible noise. That term never shrinks even with infinite data. Both intervals widen as moves away from...

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